Voters think that Gordon Brown's high-profile battle to turn around the economy is doomed, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll. Only 31% think the prime minister's strategy will make things better. Most, 64%, think it will either achieve nothing or even make the situation worse.
Even Labour's supporters are doubtful: only 48% of people who voted for the party in 2005 believe that the government's measures will work.
The deepening crisis has left the party facing heavy defeat. Overall Conservative support is up six points since last month's Guardian/ICM survey. At 44% it is only one point below its 25-year ICM high. Labour is on 32% and the Liberal Democrats are on 16%.
Today's poll, carried out after last week's second round of bank bail-outs and subsequent sharp falls in the share value of those banks, shows that public attitudes are hardening against the government. The Conservatives, advancing strongly, have regained their lead as the most trusted party on the economy.
A key factor seems to be public opposition to bank bail-outs. There is strong support for some recession-beating measures such as the VAT cut and a programme of new public works. But only 43% back the government's decision to purchase large stakes in some banks, and only 40% think outright nationalisation would be a good idea.
Voters are only slightly more enthusiastic about attempts by the government to underwrite bank lending, supported by 52%.
By contrast, backing for a job-creating scheme of public construction is near universal, at 85%, and 63% approve of the VAT cut.
The result is that public confidence in Labour's economic team has dropped by 11% since November.
Across the poll, Labour is flatlining – the charge once thrown at struggling Conservative leaders who could not lift their party's support below the low 30s. Labour has been on 31%, plus or minus two points, since August in ICM polls.
The prime minister can draw comfort from the fact that this new support has come almost entirely from the Lib Dems and smaller parties. Labour support is down only one point, and at 32% is well above the low points in the mid-20s it hit in the early summer last year.
But that simply suggests the party is on course for a big defeat rather than a calamity. One estimate suggests that the Conservatives would win around 360 seats on today's figures, a majority of about 70. Labour could expect to win around 240, 30 more than it did at its nadir under Michael Foot in 1983.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems will be disturbed by their sharp fall in support of three points. Today's 16% is the lowest in any ICM poll since August. The Lib Dems, who normally perform better in ICM polls than in those from some other companies, enter 2009 four points below their rating at the start of 2008, when Nick Clegg had just become leader.
Support for other parties, at 8%, is down by two points.
Asked who they trust most on the economy – Brown and Alistair Darling, or David Cameron and George Osborne – voters now give the Conservatives a narrow two point lead.
The big shift involves Labour, down 11 points in two months to 35%. The Conservatives have not been making headway at the government's expense: 37% of voters think the Tory team is best, unchanged from November.
Confidence in the Conservative team is still three points lower than it was in March last year, just after the budget and the 10p tax row. Labour is still five points up on that spring Tory high point.
Over the year as a whole, however, Labour is the loser. In January 2008 it led by seven points as the best party on the economy, against today's deficit of two.
• ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone between 23 and 25 January 2009. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
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